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World Cup 2006 Preview – Italy

Absolute odds: 10/1

Group E winners: 10/11

Italy are the grand masters of heartbreaking tragedy when it comes to major finals. At all three World Cups staged in the 1990s, the Italians lost on penalties, including Roberto Baggio’s infamous miss against Brazil in the 1994 final.

They don’t fare much better in Europe either. With Euro 2000 in the bag, opponents France equalized four minutes into added time and went on to win, while Euro 2004 saw Italy withdraw in the group stage when Sweden and Denmark drew 2-2, the only result that would send both teams through at the expense of the Italians.

Italy have failed when it matters most for an art form and should provide plenty of drama in this summer’s final. However, they tend to bring it on themselves more often than not.

In a move that would make dealer manager Barry Fry proud, Italy coach Marcelo Lippi used an incredible 36 players in qualifying, so it’s possible he has yet to find his best starting XI. However, after 10 qualifying matches in which no player has appeared in more than eight matches, Italy may not have the stability to see him triumph in Germany.

Italy are notoriously slow in the major final stages, which won’t help matters in what is potentially the toughest of all groups. In qualifying, they lost an early game in Slovenia and could come away against an unknown amount of Ghana in their opener.

After a small mistake in qualifying, the Italians went unbeaten for the rest of the campaign, proving they are solid if not spectacular and topped the group by five points. There is no value in them winning Group E at 10/11 or qualifying from it at high odds, but given their history of being “there or thereabouts”, they are likely to secure a place in the last 16.

Their success will come from a tight defense mustered by Fabio Cannavaro, who missed the embarrassing loss to South Korea in the 2002 final, and Alessandro Nesta.

Lippi is also struggling to know who to play in attack. Veterans Alessandro Del Piero and Christian Vieri could make way for AC Milan’s Alberto Gilardino and Fiorentina’s Luca Toni, who have scored four goals in eight qualifying appearances. Real Madrid’s Antonio Cassano is another option.

Recommended bet:

An unpredictable line-up and a history of doing “just enough” to progress in the tournament rather than winning in style means there is more value in opposing Italy than backing them at odds to win the group or qualify. Their final game against the Czech Republic could end on a level playing field if it only takes one point for both teams to advance to the knockout stages.

Draw Italy vs Czech Republic @ 11/5

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