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2010 Fantasy Football Quarterback (QB) Auction Draft – To Splurge Or Not to Splurge?
The question facing all fantasy football players this year is whether they should spend big bucks on auction or a first draft pick on top QB talent. In most seasons it’s a question you have to ask yourself and 2010 is no different.
It is worth arguing that there are 4 levels of QB quality to choose from. The first 3 tiers are made up of the top 10 QBs, so if you don’t want to pay to play, then 11-25 should be where you’re looking for your diamond in the rough. I don’t think that’s the worst strategy; I call it QB rotisserie the idea is you catch your QB in the last few rounds or just spend $1 or $2 on an auction and play the waiver wire every week to find a QB with a good defensive game to exploit. It can be a winning strategy and you can find a QB along the way. This allows you to focus a lot more resources on your other listing spots.
If you are committed to a top QB which in my opinion there are only 9 or 10 (according to Favre) that are better than the rotisserie method, you need to decide how many resources you are willing to devote to the position . Now in a 10-team league everyone can get a decent QB, but in 12+ team leagues there aren’t enough for everyone so they’re a bit more of a commodity.
Let’s start at the top and work our way down according to the Fantasy Fortunes website:
1.Aaron Rodgers $45
2. Drew Brees $45
These two represent the most advantages to the position. Rodgers is a big part of the Packers offense that still looks strong this year. He throws a lot and, as a bonus, runs more than anyone else at the post, racking up 5 touchdowns in progress last year. I again expect similar precipitation numbers and slightly worse overshoots.
Brees has the keys to what could be the top scoring offense for 2010 and they’re stacked with guns. He should continue to put in huge numbers. I think he’s a little safer than Rodgers.
The next step is
3. Peyton Manning $35
Manning is a top QB selling at a $10 discount. His weapons are still in place and he is the model of regularity. A very safe game and he must be hungry after last season. The concern here is that they tend to sit it out at the end of the season, hurting fantasy owners during championship week. I’m not as worried this year because I don’t think the Colts are locking down the field as fast this year. I’m a bit worried with Rodgers if Favre doesn’t come back because without Favre the Vikings won’t push the Pack to win the division.
The next QBs represent a significant level break:
4. Matt Schaub $25
5. Phillip Rivers $21
6. Tom Brady $18
7. Tony Romo $13
These 4 all execute very good attacks. Schaub looks set to explode although injuries have been a problem. Rivers has shown he can do it and represents decent value. Brady has never been cheaper although Moss is getting older, Brady at this price could be the steal of the QB field. I included Romo in this tier because I think we undervalued him a bit and his connection with Austin could make for a big season.
Our final QB level that I would be willing to commit significant resources to before giving up the rotisserie QB position is:
8. Brett Favre $11
9. Donovan McNabb $10
10. Joe Flacco $9
There are clearly some guys below that are better than the waiver wire but I don’t know if they’re worth what you’ll have to give up to get them. Favre scares me and personally I would leave him alone, even if he repeats his performance from last year someone will get great value out of it. McNabb comes into a fresh attack and is hard to read, but he has the knack for making good numbers. Flacco, on the other hand, adds Boldin and could really come into his own this year. I will target it as a value play if I can get it for the right price.
What should guide your decision in selecting a QB is how many split points you gain or lose by picking one QB over another. If you think Aaron Rodgers will score the $10-$11 60-point QBs, you need to decide if an extra $35 on your currently slated RB #2 will get you 60 more points than the guy you’d otherwise have in the slot. #2RB. I would say at a minimum you need to get the same split points at QB or higher. It’s easier to replace a starting QB with someone who scores consistent runs than to replace an RB with a consistent scorer. But if you think you can get some quality backup RBs and still get the top QBs, then I say go for it because they provide a safe place to get some good separation from your competition.
If you’re skipping top QBs and going rotisserie-style this year, be sure to check Fantasy Fortunes weekly for FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) bid amounts. We will give advice on who to add and what to bid.
We’ll also update weekly player value throughout the season with auction values to help you gauge your team’s value and gauge trades.
Good luck with your draft or auction.
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