Best Draft Position Fantasy Football 10-Team latest 2023

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2007 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates by Position

A year ago, who would have predicted the seasons Ryan Howard, Jeremy Bonderman, Brandon Webb and Brian McCann would have? Predicting breakout candidates is one of the most enjoyable aspects for any baseball fan. The excitement builds in November and December when free agents sign and you see photos of players showing off their brand new uniforms and talking about how excited they are to play for their new team. Next thing you know, you’re reading about how well this player’s swing will play at his new home ballpark, and then you’ll finally hear from Peter Gammons on how your candidate is performing in Florida. At that point, you are sold. You think it’s certain that Josh Beckett will win 20 games en route to his first Cy Young, or that Kerry Wood/Mark Prior will return to the prowess they showed in 2003. Unfortunately, a month later, your point of view has changed drastically and then you race to find the next Jered Weaver or Justin Verlander. The moral of this sad story is that the best place to find breakout candidates isn’t by browsing the deal pages of your local newspaper in January, your best bets are usually right under your nose, hidden in the dark. because they didn’t make headlines in the offseason.

Notice the one thing Howard, Bonderman, Webb and McCann have in common? They didn’t get much off-season publicity until 2006 because they weren’t traded or signed to a big contract. Most dispatch lists include players who change teams, but this comes with a risk. For every Alfonso Soriano, there’s a Josh Beckett, or Carl Pavano, or even Randy Johnson. Nothing is guaranteed in sports – especially expecting someone to increase their level of play by 200% while getting used to a new team, a new league, a new city, a new baseball stadium , etc., etc.

While some breakout seasons are hits and misses – see Brady Anderson (c. 1996), Matt Nokes (’87), and Rich Aurilla/Luis Gonzalez (’01) – many of them are somewhat predictable. A breakout as extreme as Ryan Howard’s 2006 campaign is rare and probably won’t be seen again for quite some time. After all, how many 2nd graders do you know who have hit more than 50 homers? But, players such as Garrett Atkins and Brian McCann showed the hallmarks of previous years that they were ready for a big season at some point in their future.

Below is a list, by position, of players who are poised to break through in 2007. Most of these guys you may not have heard much about, and they certainly won’t be in the top 10 picks this year, but that could change in a single season’s time. The analysis below is based more on plate discipline and slugging percentage than HR/RBI or even off-season attention and you will notice that every player listed below will be on the same team in 2007 than in 2006.

Catchers – Russell Martin (LAD) is the obvious candidate here. He posted a .352 OBP in his rookie campaign to go along with a .436 SLG and 10 stolen bases. The slugging percentage isn’t exceptional, but for a 23-year-old receiver, it’s a sign of good things to come. If he keeps running (and he has done so in the past with 39 career minor league SBs in under 400 games), and also shows normal improvement at the plate, he could be a fantasy monster at some point. . It won’t happen in 2007, but he will make progress, a potential 20/20 guy behind the plate would be a good deal for the 15th round. (Also considered – Mike Napoli – LAA)

1st Base – Lyle Overbay (TOR) is a guy who’s been around for a while, so he should go under the radar come draft day. Most guys are looking for 1st/2nd year guys to get away with, but Overbay doesn’t fall into that category as 2007 will be their 7th season at the big league level. He hit 46 doubles and 22 homers in 2006 and it’s not a stretch to think that some of those doubles will turn into homers in 2007. If that happens, he’ll quickly drop into the 30 homer range and be a bargain. as a 15th round pick. (Also considered – Prince Fielder – MIL)

2nd base – Ian Kinsler (TEX) was a promising prospect in 2006, but he missed a lot of time early on before putting up some really solid numbers for a rookie and somehow isn’t attracting much anymore attention. Kinsler finished the season with a .286/.348/.454 line to go with 14 homers and 11 stolen bases in just 120 games. That prorated number for the 160-game season would translate to 19 homers and 15 interceptions. It’s for a guy who hit 23 homers and stole 19 bases in 2005 at AAA at age 23, so 20/20 is in his future and why shouldn’t it happen in 2007. It’s definitely a possibility. With the lack of depth at 2nd base, catch this guy and draft him a little earlier than you would like. It’s a worthy bet at a very low position. (Also considered – Howie Kendrick -LAA and Rickie Weeks – MIL)

3rd Base – Ryan Zimmerman is a guy everyone overlooks due to the weak roster around him in 2007. He had a great season for a rookie – with a .287/.351/.471 line to go with 20 home runs and 11 stolen bases. It’s conceivable his numbers could slip with the loss of Soriano on the Nationals roster. However, he will be moved to third in the order and should see increased RBI opportunities to go along with what should be a .300/.365/.510 season. (Also Considered – Nobody) Shortstop – Stephen Drew (ARI) hopefully won’t spend the first 5 years of his career on these lists like his brother did 5-10 years ago. He burst onto the scene in 2006 with a .316/.359/.517 line in 209 AB. His walk rate will need to improve for him to join the top players in his position, but he should be good for .300/.340/.480 on full-time duty in 2007, and he had a good OBP and a good plate discipline. figures among minors. Don’t expect a lot of speed here (only 6 interceptions in his minor league career), but he was a career .315/.385/.546 hitter during his time in the minors with a 79/ 117 BB/K. He will soon be in the top 30. (Also considered – Khalil Greene – SD)

Outfield – Carlos Quentin (ARI) is a highly regarded prospect and is assured of good work on the field after making a good impression in 2006. His minor league numbers show a potential 2nd round pick – .309/.427/. 522 with 160 BBs and 173 Ks – and he didn’t disappoint in his 166 ABs at the big league level last year, hitting .253/.342/.530. Quentin’s value should appreciate faster than the more highly touted Delmon Young, and he’s capable of hitting .290/.350/.550 in 2007.

Starting pitcher – Cole Hamels (PHI) showed exceptional potential in 2006. Both at AAA and ML level. He finished the year with a 9.9 K/9 ratio at the ML level in his rookie season. That’s on top of his minor league career rate of 12.4k/9 in 201 innings. His problem throughout his minor league life was simply staying healthy, and if he can do that in 2007, he’s a real Cy Young contender. I think he retires 10 players in 9 innings and enters the 2008 season as a top 5 pitcher. All pitchers pose more risk than hitters, so catch Hamels when you can.

Closer – Chad Orvella (TB) isn’t even mentioned by the Devil Rays as a candidate for Closer. It’s usually not a good idea to target a pitcher whose own team isn’t planning on getting close, but Orvella’s numbers in the minor leagues are too good to ignore. In nearly 150 innings, he struck out 215 (k/9 of 13) and walked 26 (bb/9 of 1.6). You might not want to write it now, but watch it if/when McClung struggles.

Here. If you focus on these players in the 2nd half of your draft, you’ll be in good shape for the 2007 season, so sit back, relax and let’s play ball!

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